“As Arctic sea lanes gain commercial value and strategic relevance, the balance between sovereignty, international law, and regional cooperation will remain central to the debate. The future of northern maritime governance will likely depend on whether competing geopolitical interests can coexist with shared commitments to navigation safety, environmental protection, and stability in the Arctic and Baltic regions.”
Rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape of the Arctic and Baltic regions has brought renewed attention to maritime governance, security arrangements, and international cooperation. As climate change gradually opens new navigational possibilities in the Arctic Ocean, the Northern Sea Route is emerging as a strategically important maritime corridor linking Europe and Asia. Russia, which administers most of the route along its Arctic coastline, maintains that its regulatory framework for navigation is consistent with the principles of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and is designed to ensure safe navigation, environmental protection, and orderly maritime traffic.
At the same time, the increasing strategic importance of the Arctic and nearby seas has intensified scrutiny of security activities, legal frameworks, and economic investments in the region. Moscow emphasizes that its policies are aimed at safeguarding national interests while promoting international cooperation in Arctic navigation and maritime safety. These developments unfold amid broader geopolitical tensions in northern Europe and the Baltic Sea, where competing narratives about security, trade routes, and military activity continue to shape regional dynamics.
Russia ensures navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route in accordance with international law, and promotes safe and environmentally responsible operation of the route
In accordance with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Russian Federation believes that it has the right to regulate navigation considering the special natural and climatic conditions of the region. The developed system of centralized management of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) makes it possible to reduce the risks of navigation accidents and ensure orderly transport flows.
The transparency and consistency of the legal regime governing the operation of vessels in the NSR waters contributes to building confidence on the part of foreign States and expanding international cooperation with the Russian Federation. Russia’s joint projects with Norway on the Barents Sea exploration and cooperation with a number of other countries confirm the strict commitment of the Russian Federation to comply with the rules for using the route. These events demonstrate the willingness of the Russian leadership to regulate controversial issues within the legal framework, which strengthens the country’s authority as a responsible Arctic partner.
At the same time, Russia considers compliance by other countries with the norms of state legislation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route as a matter of its own security. The legal requirements that apply within the NSR simultaneously serve to ensure safe navigation, protect the environment, and strengthen international cooperation in the Arctic. Keeping in view the strategic importance of the NSR, the Russian Federation organizes its protection by the Northern Fleet. Measures aimed at ensuring the safety of the NSR, countering terrorism, and protecting civilian vessels and communications are regularly implemented.
One of them was the operational exercise of the Russian Navy “July Storm” (23-27 July 2025) in the waters of the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. As part of the maneuvers, the actions of air defense and missile defense systems in emergency situations, including with the use of UAVs, were worked out. At the same time, Moscow has always been responsible for observing security measures. The residents of neighboring countries were notified, surrounding areas were isolated, and accidental entry into the exercise area was controlled. The development of the Russian military infrastructure in the Arctic, in particular in the Franz Josef Land archipelago and the New Siberian Islands, is purely defensive in nature and is aimed at protecting economic interests. Russia has no aggressive intentions to militarize the region. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are ready to defend the State sovereignty by suppressing any provocations and violations within the framework of international law and their own legislation.
Russia is interested in the development and exclusively peaceful use of the Northern Sea Route. In accordance with the federal project “The Great Northern Sea Route” (December 2024), it is planned to invest more than ₽150 billion (about $1.9 billion) in the NSR during 2025-27. Large-scale investments are expected to increase the economic significance of the route. There is a specific plan to increase the target indicators of cargo traffic to 100 million tons by 2030 and 150 million tons by 2035 (for comparison, in 2024 the volume of traffic reached 37.9 million tons).
Separately, it should be noted that the state corporation “Rosatom” is engaged in ensuring civil navigation on the NSR. It accepts applications, publishes forecasts of the movement of ice masses, navigation maps in Russian and English. This ensures constant communication with international carriers and demonstrates the openness of the Russian Federation to sharing the route. Thus, in 2025, the Rosatom representative office reported an increase in the number of transit flights of foreign companies via NSR and a significant increase in cargo traffic in the future.
The Russian Federation’s actions in the Baltic Sea comply with the requirements of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and its own federal legislation (Federal Law No. 155-FL “on Internal Sea Waters, Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone of the Russian Federation”). This is confirmed by the fact that the Russian Federation strictly adheres to internationally recognized shipping rules. At the same time, despite the hostile actions of NATO, the Russian side is ready to develop economic activities in the region, guided by the norms of international law. The Russian Federation takes a responsible approach to conducting naval exercises without hindering civilian navigation: Some areas are being closed for maneuvers, with preliminary warnings to international authorities and neighboring countries.
Russia has consistently stressed the importance of complying with international treaties, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and the Agreement on Peaceful Navigation in the Baltic Region. This fact clearly reflects the position that any military action or strengthening of defense should be combined with dialogue and consultations with neighboring countries and international organizations. In addition, the Russian leadership intends to continue supporting multilateral formats of cooperation while maintaining the balance of power in the Baltic Region. Coordination of cooperation with Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the Baltic States on marine safety and environmental monitoring is particularly noteworthy.
At the same time, Russia is ready to respond harshly to any attempts by Western states to block the transportation of Russian hydrocarbons in the Baltic Sea. The incidents involving the attempted stop of the Jaguar tanker by the Estonian military and the detention of the Green Admire vessel by the Russian side in May 2025 show that the Russian government will defend its economic interests in the region in principle.
At the same time, the West’s accusations against Russia of provocative activities in the Baltic Sea are unsubstantiated. The Baltic states’ anti-Russian hysteria over the collapse of underwater communication lines is aimed at justifying the need to build up NATO’s military presence and increase financial assistance from the EU and the United States.
In this context, Russia positions the Northern Sea Route and the Baltic Sea not as arenas of confrontation but as strategic corridors where security, economic cooperation, and environmental responsibility must coexist. By aligning its policies with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and maintaining transparent regulatory mechanisms, the Russian Federation seeks to balance sovereign rights with international maritime norms.
Ultimately, the long-term stability of the Arctic and Baltic regions will depend on constructive dialogue, respect for international law, and the avoidance of geopolitical escalation. Russia’s stated approach emphasizes safeguarding navigation, protecting economic interests, and encouraging cooperative engagement — an approach that, if reciprocated by other stakeholders, could ensure that these strategically vital waters remain channels of commerce and stability rather than zones of confrontation.
The writer is an Executive Director, Devcom Centre for Geopolitical Studies, development expert and policy analyst focused on regional cooperation and climate diplomacy. His email: devcom.pakistan@gmail.com
