At the international level, the geopolitical landscape is taking new turns, while on 28 December the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting and a joint press conference, during which it was revealed that consensus has been reached on 90 percent of the Ukraine–Russia peace plan, and both heads of state hope that the peace agreement will be signed soon; however, no final breakthrough could be achieved. And here it will also be necessary to shed light on what is meant by a breakthrough and why it could not be achieved.
Among the key points of the Russia–Ukraine peace plans, Donald Trump’s peace plan tops the list, which initially included 28 points, of which 20 remain going forward. According to its sub-section, there will be a ceasefire and freezing of territory along the current line of contact, which means de facto recognition of the existing occupation, including temporary recognition of the areas under Russian control. The plan also includes that elections will be held in Ukraine within 100 days, and Trump’s plan clearly states that Ukraine will not obtain NATO membership.
An additional hard point is that if Russia attacks again in the future, there will be an immediate military response, all global sanctions will be restored, and territorial recognition and the agreement will be canceled, which means that Ukraine will be able to join NATO. This point is non-negotiable for Ukraine but unacceptable to Russia and the United States. Russia’s position is that accepting this condition would be tantamount to a direct risk of a third world war, and Russia has already warned that in the event of NATO intervention, nuclear weapons could be the last option. The United States is not prepared for a guarantee like NATO’s Article 5; however, a 10-year U.S. security guarantee is under consideration. There is also a dispute over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is located in an area under Russian control, and Zelensky demands that control of the plant be jointly assumed by Ukraine and the United States. Russia refuses to hand over control because the area is already under Russian occupation, and this issue is among the most sensitive and unresolved points.
There is disagreement over the demilitarized zone, and Ukraine’s demand is that all areas under Russian control be fully demilitarized. Russia’s position is that complete withdrawal is unacceptable and that only a reduction in military presence can be considered. Reports regarding the progress of negotiations indicate that agreement has been reached on approximately 90 percent of the points, and disagreement remains on only 10 percent, which include security guarantees, the nuclear power plant, and military presence, and a decision on these 10 percent points is expected soon. Russia has already retained Crimea and other eastern regions, and Russia’s primary objective is recognition of control over these areas. Russia will not compromise on territorial control in exchange for a guarantee of not joining NATO. The American role and financial facts are that the United States claims to have spent 300 billion dollars on Ukraine so far, whereas the BBC has confirmed that this expenditure amounted to 130 billion dollars from 24 January 2022 to 31 August 2025.
Donald Trump’s position is that if the United States withdraws its support, Ukraine will not be able to resist Russia and the Ukrainian president will lose more territory, and may even lose his country. Therefore, no final benefit is possible for Zelensky without U.S. approval. Russian military pressure and recent attacks are such that Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent days, the purpose of which is to prevent Ukrainian or American control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, and this pressure is being used to gain leverage in negotiations. The overall conclusion is that the prospects for ending the war are very close, but the final obstacles are NATO-style security guarantees, control of the nuclear power plant, and the demilitarized zone. It is likely that if a middle path is found, a peace agreement will be possible, if not in a few days then in a few weeks.
The reality is that the Russia–Ukraine war has subjected the global community to severe economic losses; increases in energy and food prices, inflation, and rising poverty have broken the back of economies around the world. A Russia–Ukraine peace agreement will pave the way to address all these issues. Once a peace agreement is concluded, the global community will benefit from economic stability and a reduction in geopolitical tension, and signs of eventual stability will begin to emerge in the energy and food markets.
After the resolution of the Ukraine issue, Donald Trump’s focus may also turn toward Kashmir, and it is also noteworthy that Donald Trump has mentioned the Kashmir issue twice and has also stated that if he had not stopped a Pakistan–India war, two nuclear countries could have used nuclear power, which would have cast clouds of danger over the entire world and would not have been acceptable to the international community at all. Therefore, a resolution of the Kashmir issue is inevitable, which, if not found, would cause the world to continue to feel as though it is sitting on the edge of a volcano as a result of a potential nuclear war.
