BOSTON: Scientists have said the arrival of storms like Hurricane Lee this weekend could become more common in the region as the planet warms, including in places such as the Gulf of Maine.
Lee remained a Category 1 hurricane late Friday night with sustained winds of 80 mph (128 kph). The storm was forecast to brush the New England coast before making landfall later Saturday in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. States of emergency were declared for Massachusetts and Maine.
One recent study found climate change could result in hurricanes expanding their reach more often into mid-latitude regions, which include New York, Boston and even Beijing.
The study says the factors include warmer sea surface temperatures in these regions and the shifting and weakening of the jet streams, which are the strong bands of air currents encircling the planet in both hemispheres.
“These jet stream changes combined with the warmer ocean temperatures are making the mid-latitude more favorable to hurricanes,” said Joshua Studholme, a Yale University physicist and the study’s lead author. “Ultimately meaning that these regions are likely to see more storm formation, intensification and persistence.”
Another recent study simulated tropical cyclone tracks from pre-industrial times, modern times and a future with higher emissions. It found hurricanes will move north and east in the Atlantic. The research also found hurricanes would track closer to the coasts including Boston, New York and Norfolk, Virginia, and more likely form along the Southeast coast, giving New Englanders less time to prepare.
Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has long studied the physics of hurricanes, said parts of Maine will see more frequent hurricanes and heavier rains with each storm.
One reason for the trend is the region’s warming waters.
The Gulf of Maine, for example, is warming faster than the vast majority of the world’s oceans. In 2022, the gulf recorded the second-warmest year on record, beating the old record by less than half a degree Fahrenheit. The average sea surface temperature was 53.66 degrees Fahrenheit (12 degrees Celsius), more than 3.7 degrees above the 40-year average, scientists said.
