For PTI workers, the question is very important whether there can be an understanding between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the establishment. It’s amusing that this question holds significant importance, especially for the leaders and workers of PTI and particularly for the leaders and workers of the PML-N.
PML-N leaders and workers get fired up over any wrong or fake social media story related to this matter. The situation has escalated to the point where Imran Khan’s sentence from the High Court is suspended; the actual case is as it is, and everyone knows that Imran Khan has been arrested in another case, and he won’t be released under any circumstances. Despite this, N-League leadership like Shehbaz Sharif are agitated and clashing in the courts.
Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz had already attacked the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court before. This is an attempt on their part to make a special statement, but it also indicates a strong lack of restraint. Nawaz Sharif was supposed to return in the middle of September; it was postponed by a month for various reasons, but it’s quite evident that Nawaz Sharif wants to see whether Imran Khan will be sentenced in the special secret act case or not.
For PTI workers, it seems that in the current mood of the establishment, the party won’t be allowed to participate in the election, or they’ll be given an opportunity with strict control to prevent success. Although this isn’t an easy task, and despite everything that has happened to the Justice Movement, the party’s public support is still strong. However, holding elections in the near future is becoming increasingly difficult.
Returning to the original question, can there be any possibility of peace or understanding between the PTI and the establishment?
Sources deny it. In their view, the cross has already been put on Imran Khan’s name, and after the next election, the political setup that will form will have no place for the Justice Movement and Imran Khan. Everything is predetermined, and a mixed government like before will be formed, with a larger portion belonging to the PML-N.
One issue with writers like me is that when we write an analysis while keeping the ground realities in mind, some PTI workers think we’re spreading ill will, and in reality, it’s the agenda of the PML-N that’s being fulfilled, etc. So, what can we do? But if a Justice Movement worker or supporter isn’t disillusioned at this time and still holds good hopes, they should nominate him for next year’s Optimism Leadership Award.
The reasons for the establishment’s opposition or dissatisfaction are all in front of everyone. Imran Khan’s anti-establishment or anti-army statement, his zeal for solo flights, displeasing the international establishment, not having support in friendly countries, etc. etc. Whereas the events of May 9th have established the credibility of the powerful circles’ decision-making.
In my personal opinion, somewhere, there will also be a thought that if Imran Khan becomes a powerful figure, he will adopt a very aggressive stance, crush the opposition, and regardless of the establishment, he will show unwavering conviction, he can have whatever attitude he wants, he can do anything, etc.
“There is a circle of opinion that without Imran Khan, affairs cannot be managed, and establishing a stable political scenario by sidelining him is quite challenging. This is why at some point, a discussion with Imran Khan will be necessary. This opinion exists within the ranks of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and there are also those in the media who hold this view and support him.
This can be viewed with optimism and even predicted to some extent. Within PTI, there is a faction that believes in negotiating with the establishment and utilizing as much space as possible within politics. According to their perspective, if Chairman Imran Khan steps back for a period of time, then perhaps a dialogue with the establishment could occur. They don’t rely on getting support for power, but they believe that if there’s no opposition to PTI candidates in the elections, they can form a strong and sizable group in assemblies. The main issue is that Imran Khan does not have such intentions. He is resolute in facing challenges and is not willing to leave the leadership of the party under any circumstances.
The question then arises: What can happen in the current situation? How will the establishment neutralize PTI’s significant popular support and prevent them from gaining a majority in the next elections? It is being said that a formula has been devised regarding this. This idea is present among their own ranks, not something entirely new, but it holds significance nevertheless. The year 2002 was crucial in our politics when General Musharraf controlled the elections and attempted to keep Nawaz Sharif’s party out of the running. Then, a special vote bank belonged to PML-N, but due to the lack of candidates, the elections couldn’t be conducted properly, resulting in a difficult distribution of seats. Prior to this, in the 1997 elections, the Pakistan People’s Party had to face a significant defeat. The reason behind this was that the party’s worker was so disheartened and disillusioned that they didn’t even come out to vote, leading to a loss of sixteen seats. In the 2018 elections, many of PML-N’s potential candidates were thwarted, some withdrew their nominations, but the delay was such that new tickets couldn’t be issued, and some contested as independent candidates, later joining PTI after winning.
In the 2018 elections, PML-N’s strong candidates were pressurized and made to switch to PTI, neutralizing them, and thus, PML-N lost both Punjab and the federation. Informed journalists are reporting that these three models will be collectively used in the upcoming elections. Efforts will be made to make PTI’s voters and workers so disillusioned that they don’t even come out to vote, while reliable candidates who are loyal beyond doubt will only get votes based on party symbols. In some places, PTI supporters will contest as independent candidates to counteract any attempt to subdue them. Imran Khan hopes that due to his significant public support, the establishment might consider negotiating with him as the elections draw near. Whether this is seen as a heartening hope or an assessment of Khan’s conditions, it will reach its culmination, and we will all come to know its extent.
Throughout this scenario, the intense public protests regarding electricity load shedding emerged as an unexpected factor. Nobody had predicted it. Even PTI did not have such calculations. The public’s strong resentment and helplessness have also shaken Nawaz Sharif, sitting in London. If this situation persists, he can delay his return even further. The caretaker government is being pressured to negotiate with the IMF and provide some relief in electricity load shedding, to alleviate the intense public restlessness and anxiety. It’s expected that this can also kickstart normal political activities.
In the coming days, the role of the public’s anger, dissatisfaction, and restlessness will be the most significant. These plans can be changed, and if Spymaster succeeds in changing all this, the scenario will be different.”
