WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that if Russia exits from a deal allowing Ukrainian exports of grain from the Black Sea then it could push the global prices by 10-15%.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters that the Black Sea grain deal played an “instrumental” role in ensuring ample supplies of grains could be shipped from Ukraine. He added that it had helped ease price pressures on food. Its suspension would likely put upward pressure on prices, he said.
“We’re still assessing where we’re going to land, but you would be thinking that somewhere in the range of 10 to 15% increase in prices of grains is a reasonable estimate,” he added.
The IMF on Tuesday forecast that global headline inflation would fall to 6.8% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022, dropping to 5.2% in 2024, with core inflation declining more gradually to 6.0% in 2023 and then 4.7% in 2024.
The IMF last week said Russia’s withdrawal from the initiative, which was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations last July, would hit regions that rely heavily on shipments from Ukraine, including North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
The deal had allowed Ukraine to export around 33 metric tonnes of grain by sea and turned out to be an important factor for global food security.
