The 11-party alliance, under the banner of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), has concluded its first phase of public agitation with the Lahore rally in order to oust the Imran Khan-led government.
The PDM leadership, led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, held rallies in various cities and after nearly three months of so-called struggle, the opposition leadership has now hinted at a long march to Islamabad, vowing not to negotiate.
Let’s take an in-depth review of the ongoing political turmoil in Pakistan and the PDM’s decision to do long march and to resign from the National and Provincial Assemblies.
PDM’s Lahore public gathering
The sixth and final PDM power show – held in what is regarded as the bastion of the PMLN, the largest opposition party – was not as impressive. It was earlier dubbed as a referendum against the federal government, which, the PDM claims, came into power in the wake of a rigged poll in July 2018.
The presence of the workers of other parties especially the JUI-F and PML-N workers from other parts of Punjab, however, did provide a face-saving. Even leaders of other parties acknowledged the PML-N local supporters’ lack of participation.
The Pakistan Democratic Movement wants to send the government home in any case. The opposition leadership has also criticized the institutions during its anti-government movement and on several occasions, which created a chaos.
New strategies
Meanwhile, the opposition parties have decided to resign from the national and provincial assemblies, along with a long march, in a move to confirm commitment to their ultimate goal of removing Khan’s government.
According to reports so far, dozens of members of opposition parties have tendered their resignations to their respective party leaderships. However, some party leaders have shared displeasure over the decision.
It seems that the opposition leadership is not on the same page like resignations. The PDM leadership did announce a long march on Islamabad in a bid to dislodge the PTI led federal government but stopped short of giving a specific date for it.
Long marches towards Islamabad by political parties are not a new thing. There have been many long marches, some of which were successful and some faced setbacks.
Senate elections
Reportedly, one of the reasons the PDM has declared its intent to resign has to do with the incoming Senate election scheduled to take place in March 2021. However, if the PDM follows through on the threat of mass resignations, it is unlikely to harm the PTI government in any way.
Legal and constitutional experts believe that the opposition’s planned mass resignations from the assemblies cannot stop the ruling party from obtaining a majority in the upper house of the parliament after the Senate polls.
They believe that Pakistan’s constitution and laws are silent on any specific requirement related to a number of lawmakers to be present in the house for voting.
Experts further said that out of a total of 1,090 legislators in the National and Provincial Assemblies, 494 belong to PDM parties and even if PDM members resign, 45 percent of the Electoral College will be affected. It is unlikely that the PDM will follow through with their threat of resignations.
What’s next?
So far, all of the PDM’s threats against the government have failed. In fact, arguably, the PDM has gone too far with its targeting of military leadership. Quite simply, the PDM’s movement faces an uphill battle from here onward when it comes to pulling off a long march successfully on technical grounds.
From here onward, the road for the PDM gets messier and bumpier. The government has already started arresting PDM leaders on charges of violating COVID-19 protocols. The opposition will find it hard to get their plans of en masse resignations and long march moving.
