In September, the country’s major opposition parties announced the launching of a three-phased anti-government movement under an action plan with countrywide public meetings, protest demonstrations and rallies in December and a decisive long march towards Islamabad in January 2021, under the banner of – Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM).
Since the creation of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the political temperature in the country has soared to levels not witnessed since the 2018 elections.
The PDM rallies thus far have attracted decent crowds and the speeches – particularly Nawaz Sharif’s speech at the Gujranwala rally – have successfully captured the attention of the media and nation.
While PDM is so far the most potent challenge for the present government, such large multi-party opposition alliances are not new to Pakistan’s political atmosphere. A review of similar alliances from the last few decades can therefore provide insights into what the future might hold for PDM.
Politic of deals
In early December 2000, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the then Pakistan Muslim League (PML), along with more than 11 other political parties had announced the creation of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD).
About a week after the creation of ARD, Nawaz Sharif quietly left for Saudi Arabia after what was later revealed to be a deal between him and the military government, facilitated by Pakistan’s brotherly countries in the Middle East.
In May 2006, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto signed the Charter of Democracy (COD) in London. This was widely hailed as yet another extraordinary moment in the country’s struggle for democracy.
Yet only about a year, after the signing of the COD, the United States had successfully brokered a deal between Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto.
This deal, which is described by Condoleezza Rice in ample detail in her book “No Higher Honour” eventually led to the infamous National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and the return of Benazir to Pakistan. This time, Benazir had successfully leveraged the opposition alliance to bargain a deal for her PPP.
After the return of democracy, COD violations became more routine. During the notorious Memogate scandal of 2012, Nawaz Sharif donned the black coat himself and became the establishment’s advocate, in a legal battle against the PPP government.
As recently, Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz – who have been championing the narrative of ‘Vote Ko Izzat Do’ for several years – were trying to negotiate a settlement with the military establishment.
Countless other instances can be quoted, but these should be sufficient to prove that the leading political parties forming the PDM are driven more by realpolitik than by lofty ideals of democracy and civilian supremacy.
Bilawal’s interview set media and political ablaze
Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s interview to a private news channel has set social media and political ablaze in the country. The PPP chairman said he was surprised by PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif’s naming of the chief of the army and ISI as those responsible for stealing the 2018 elections.
He said at the All Parties Conference everyone had agreed to not name names but use the broader term ‘establishment’ when criticizing those who placed PTI in power. But Bilawal also said Sharif would not have said the names unless he had proof.
Does this amount to Bilawal cleaving the opposition alliance PDM and sabotaging PML-N’s anti-government campaign? Is the Bilawal factor finally kicking in?
Firmly handled Karachi embarrassment
In PDM, he is balancing the no-holds-barred approach of Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Maulana Fazlur Rehman with a more nuanced line of attack. While the others are primed to play the resignations card, he continues with his guarded choice of words. In fact, he is juggling competing agendas rather skillfully.
He handled the Karachi embarrassment maturely and firmly. When the Sindh police broke into the hotel and arrested retired Capt Safdar, PDM faced its first real challenge.
The initial reactions from the Sindh government and the waffling from officials in the afternoon seemed to bear down heavily on the nascent alliance.
Then Bilawal saved the day — and possibly the alliance — by delivering a passionate and charged press conference calling out the army chief directly to look into the affairs of the ‘federal agencies’.
Bilawal’s change of stance- A possible political deal
Internal sources disclosed that Bilawal’s change of stance comes after a discreet promise of victory in the GB elections. In return, it is alleged Bilawal has distanced himself from the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s core narrative of civilian supremacy.
Bilawal has crisscrossed every single constituency in a bid to win the Nov 15 elections in the region. Bilawal has almost single-handedly galvanized electoral activity in the region and fired up his support base.
The campaign trail was fairly cold and hard in the region, but Bilawal charged people and brought them out of their houses by spending enormous amounts of money.
If the PPP wins the GB elections and forms the government, it would be Bilawal’s single biggest political achievement since his launch as the heir apparent to the Bhutto legacy.
In such uncertain times, however, Bilawal is exuding cautious aggression. In PDM, he is balancing the no-holds-barred approach of Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Maulana Fazlur Rehman with a more nuanced line of attack.
While the others are primed to play the resignations card, he continues with his guarded choice of words. In fact, he is juggling competing agendas rather skillfully.
