The Middle East once again appears to be standing on the brink of acute escalation, and in diplomatic circles, speculation is mounting that, in the coming days—particularly after the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace on 19 February—the United States may launch a major, potentially protracted military operation against Iran, lasting several days or even weeks.
During the past three days, several statements by U.S. President Donald Trump have further strengthened the perception that Washington will no longer remain limited to a diplomatic impasse but that military action is also being actively weighed at the highest levels, with the attack-launching plan finalized.
According to a Reuters report that emerged two days ago, U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will hold talks with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday, 17 February 2026, in which Oman will play the role of dialogue facilitator through shuttle diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Saturday that, although Trump’s preference is to reach an agreement with Tehran, the prospects for such a deal appear increasingly remote due to a standoff on the points of missile reduction and proxy elimination by Iran. According to the report, Trump has bolstered military forces in the region, which has fueled fears of imminent military action against Iran. U.S. officials stated on Friday that the Pentagon is deploying an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with thousands of additional troops, fighter jets, guided missiles, destroyers, and other weapons capable of conducting and defending against attacks.
On the other hand, an acceleration has been seen in U.S. military preparations in the Gulf. The Pentagon has already transferred additional naval fleets, aircraft carriers and missile defense systems to the region. According to military experts, these are not merely symbolic measures but part of preparations for a possible “Phase Two,” which President Trump himself has also mentioned. According to him, if matters are not resolved through diplomacy, the next phase will be extremely harsh for Iran, a warning that underscores the severity of the potential escalation.
Ten days ago, President Donald Trump signed an executive order confirming the ongoing national emergency regarding Iran and establishing a mechanism to impose tariffs on countries that obtain any kind of goods or services from Iran, in order to safeguard America’s national security, foreign policy and economy. Under this order, a framework has been implemented that allows the United States to impose additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly purchases, imports or acquires any type of goods or services from Iran. In recent remarks, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior National Security Council officials have characterized U.S. pressure as a “deadline-based threat” and ultimatum. Tehran’s position is that it is ready for talks on the nuclear issue; however, it will not compromise on its defense sovereignty. This is the very point that is making the current crisis highly delicate.
Regarding the nuclear agreement, Iran’s position is relatively clear. Tehran is not only willing to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but is also ready to discuss additional measures such as reducing the level of uranium enrichment. This is the same agreement from which the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018.
According to Al Jazeera, today Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Geneva for the second important round of nuclear negotiations, in which efforts will be made to reduce tensions with the United States and avoid a new military clash, which Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned could escalate into a regional conflict.
The Iranian Foreign Minister stated in his social media message on Monday, “I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats.”
If both sides remain firm on their respective positions, the risk of confrontation in the region may further intensify. If the United States takes any decisive action against Iran, this conflict could trigger a new phase of instability in the region. In that situation, naval movement in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz may not only be restricted but completely halted, which will have immediate repercussions on global oil supply and prices. Moreover, Iran has already signaled targeting American bases in Gulf countries, and there is also a risk of limited or indirect military clashes erupting in the region, which could compel regional powers to step up their defensive measures. Although negotiations are persistent on the diplomatic front, in the context of the current tension the United States may potentially escalate pressure on Iran and opt for a short-term military action. As a result, Iran may respond forcefully in defense of its survival, the effects of which will reverberate not only across the Middle East but also in South Asia and the global economy. In such a situation, the balance of power in the region may shift and international powers may step in and alter the trajectory of events.
