The Ukraine war is getting intense for the final combat, most probably early summer. Both sides are recollecting their energy and resources to accumulate their strength. The US-NATO supported Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) could not get much claimed space in the war despite huge US-NATO military shipments to Kiev. Even the West’s narrative could not work out anything significant for Ukraine but a few built-up measures by the US and the West. Lately, after all their failures in Ukraine, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, a move dismissed by Moscow as meaningless.
The Hague-based court said in a statement last Friday (March 17, 2023) the warrant was issued over Putin’s suspected involvement in the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.
“There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr. Putin bears individual criminal responsibility” for the child abductions “for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (and) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts,” the ICC statement added.
The ICC, which has no powers to enforce its own warrants, also issued a warrant for the arrest of Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the commissioner for children’s rights in the office of the Russian president, on similar allegations. The ICC statement only adds to the nuisance narrative of the US-West while actually it would have no implications unless the military mights directly get engaged in. they know the consequences of malafide actions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Crimea unannounced to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula from Ukraine after the war crimes warrant issued against him, followed by another surprise visit to Mariupol. Seems, the ICC “arrest warrant” could not deter his zeal – another disappointment for the US-West after the Ukraine war prolonged over a year what they never expected.
Conversely, the Claims by Ukrainian spokespersons of a forceful takeover of Crimea are populist slogans infinitely far removed from the actual combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Despite full support from the collective West and an advantage in manpower, Kyiv cannot achieve military superiority over the Russian Armed Forces.
Foreign experts increasingly state that the Ukrainian army has no chance of ever achieving a military victory over Russia. In particular, this conclusion was reached by analysts of the US news agency Bloomberg. According to their estimates, Ukraine’s military resources are so depleted that Kiev may fall as early as by early summer. The analysts added that if the conflict drags on, Ukraine and its Western partners “will break”. In this regard, journalists of the British newspaper Daily Mirror said that Western diplomatic circles do not believe in the possibility of Crimea’s return to Ukraine and consider the idea absurd.
At the same time, Russian troops have organised an effective manoeuvre defence in most parts of the front, and in the most important areas – Donbas and Zaporizhzhya – they continue to advance deep into Ukrainian positions, liberating the territories of the new Russian entities meter by meter.
All declarative Ukrainian documents like the Strategy for the “de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea” are absolutely empty in their content and inhumane in nature. Ukrainian Reintegration Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that Kyiv would soon start training a personnel reserve for Crimea, as the situation has allegedly developed on the frontlines allowing talk about “the soonest de-occupation of the peninsula.” At the same time, she admitted that the “reintegration” of the peninsula would have a number of difficulties related primarily to the preservation of pro-Russian sentiments among a large part of the residents and, as a consequence, a high probability of a “guerrilla war”.
Such statements of the Ukrainian official mean only one thing – the Kyiv regime, realizing that it is impossible to return Crimea by peaceful means, is ready to seize the territory of Crimea by “fire and sword” without considering the opinion of the local population. The entire set of repressive measures against the residents of the Crimean Peninsula is detailed in Ukrainian documents. Citizens of the Russian Federation residing in Crimea are subject to forced deportation. This category includes almost the entire population of the peninsula. The Russian language is subject to a total ban, not only at the official business level but also in interpersonal communication. The Ukrainian authorities are preparing to apply the mechanism of deprivation of citizenship rights to the native speakers of the Russian language and culture “successfully” tested by the neo-Nazi governments related to Kyiv in the Baltic states where the Russian people have been declared “non-citizens”. And those who resist such “liberation” will be physically liquidated by the punitive units of the Banderites.
In the event of an attempt to seize the Crimean Peninsula by force, Ukraine will face an unprecedentedly harsh retaliatory strike from Russia. Any attempt by the Kyiv regime to seize the peninsula by military force will result in a harsh Russian response, with unpredictable consequences for Ukraine. Kyiv should not forget that the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge (October 8, 2022), carried out by the Ukrainian special services, was one of the main reasons for the launch of massive missile attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The result was not only a severe collapse of Ukraine’s energy system, but also the disruption of the Ukrainian armed forces’ supply chains.
The Crimean people will never agree to find themselves again under the authority of Ukraine, which, contrary to the will of the population, has for many years pursued a policy of forced “Ukrainianization” on the peninsula, turning Russian-speaking citizens into “second-class” people. Another “achievement” of the Ukrainian authorities was the deep socio-economic crisis in Crimea, which could be overcome only after the peninsula’s reunification with its historical homeland – Russia.
Kyiv’s willingness to commit any crime is a serious challenge to the security of the Crimean population and requires concerted action by the authorities and citizens to counter the likely threats. The terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, as well as the use of the maritime “grain corridor” for the covert transfer of maritime drones and a strike on the ships of the Black Sea Fleet confirm the terrorist nature of the Kiev regime. The inaction of the West and the international organisations under its control to hold Ukraine accountable for its crimes makes it imperative for Russia to address this threat itself.
