The war imposed on Iran by Israel and the United States has entered its twenty-eighth day, and its effects are appearing to be profound and unfathomable not only in the region but also at the global level.
Although US President Donald Trump has postponed the proposed attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6, claiming that peace negotiations are progressing “very well,” the Iranian leadership has weakened this impression by calling the American proposals “one-sided and unfair.” At the same time, mediation efforts by countries like Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have intensified in order to prevent this conflict from turning into a larger regional confrontation so far.
As a result of Israeli and American attacks on Iran, more than 1,900 officially admitted people have been killed until now, and in response, Iran has carried out missile and drone attacks toward Israel and several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Jordan. Even in Abu Dhabi, two people were killed and several were injured by debris resulting from the neutralization of projectiles launched from Iran. This is a clear example of the expanding scope of the war. In Kuwait as well, sirens and explosions have become routine due to continuous missile and drone strikes.
In such a situation, it would not be out of context to say that the effects of the Iran war will be extraordinarily far-reaching and even momentous. If the war prolongs, Iran, despite bearing heavy losses and perhaps depleting its missile and drone stockpiles, may shift its strategy away from conventional warfare toward clandestine underground or guerrilla activities. As a result, not only the entire Middle East but other regions as well could fall into profound and pervasive instability. Particularly in areas where American military bases exist, the likelihood of proxy attacks or guerrilla operations may increase significantly.
In this context, the economies of Gulf countries, especially the United Arab Emirates, will also face detrimental and adverse impacts, which could affect per capita income and substantially diminish foreign investment. Regions that were considered “safe havens” for global investors may now face pervasive uncertainty and precarious conditions, forcing investors to adopt a markedly cautious and circumspect approach.
This situation could also create intricate complications for a country like Pakistan, where approximately 20 percent of the Shia population is considered close to Iran’s religious and political influence, and under its defense agreement obligations, Pakistan’s standing with Saudi Arabia is a compulsion that carries the risk of escalating sectarian tension at the domestic level. In the past, during the 1990s, such organizations—whose links were associated with Iran and which, in response to other Sunni sectarian terrorist groups, had to resort to sectarian terrorism in Pakistan—highlight the gravity and seriousness of this concern.
On the other hand, if the war prolongs, it will also become difficult for the United States to sustain it. Rising military expenditures, casualties, and internal political and economic pressure—where, according to a recent survey, 64 percent of the American public is dissatisfied with government policy regarding the Iran war—could force President Trump to reconsider his strategy in the face of Israeli lobby strong influence. Furthermore, pressure on American military resources has increased to such an extent that consideration is being given to transferring defense systems allocated for Ukraine to the Middle East.
The global economy is also being severely affected by this war, and the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 30 percent of the world’s crude oil, 33 percent of fertilizer, and 50 percent of urea and sulfur exports pass—has become a central point of this conflict. Iran has included maintaining its sovereignty over this critical passage among its non-negotiable conditions, and any disruption in this route would not only intensify the energy crisis but could also lead to a severe shortage of food, even creating famine-like conditions as a result of reduced agricultural production.
If this war prolongs further, the likelihood will also increase that Iran may target American bases in other Gulf countries or the soldiers stationed there, even if they are located among civilian populations. As a result, local populations with the allegiance with the Muslim community may exert pressure on their governments for their religious, emotional, and existential security to end the American military presence, as these bases are becoming a source of danger for them and division in Muslim countries rather than protection. If governments ignore public demands, there is also a possibility of public backlash and the emergence of widespread and tumultuous protest movements in the region.
Meanwhile, Israel is also fighting a war on more than one front, where it has acknowledged the need for more troops for operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, while opposition leadership is accusing the government of imposing a multi-front war without strategy. In Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen as well, the effects of this war have intensified, where the loss of life is continuously increasing and regional stability is further weakening.
Looking at the future scenario, it appears that a new structure of global security is being formed, in which Iran, Gulf countries, and member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seem to be playing pivotal and indispensable roles. This subsequently would facilitate shift of balance of power gradually from the global North to the global South. As a result of this process, the world would automatically reshape into a new global order, where a bipolar or multipolar system will replace the unipolar system, with China, Russia, and the United States present as key powers. Thus, this war is not merely a regional conflict but may prove to be a precursor to a profound and epochal global transformation that will redefine the fundamental principles of global politics, economy, and security in the near future.
