On the world map, there are certain regions that do not remain confined merely to geographical boundaries but become the central axis of global politics, security, and economy. The Middle East is one such region where every small or large tension that arises leaves deep impacts on global powers, energy markets, and the future of regional states.
In recent days, the ongoing military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran have pushed the entire region into a new phase of uncertainty. The continuing attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran can also be described as the Third Gulf War, which has taken a more dangerous direction compared with the first two Gulf wars. The main reason is that Israel had never directly entered the battlefield before, but during the Third Gulf War against Iran, Israel has joined the war directly with the support of the United States. Within only a few days since the start of the current war, thousands of people have lost their lives, while several countries including Iran, Lebanon, and the United States are feeling the direct or indirect effects of this conflict.
According to recent reports, Israeli airstrikes targeted oil infrastructure and a desalination plant in Tehran and its surrounding areas for the first time. As a result of these attacks, fires erupted in several oil depots and storage centers, covering the sky over the Iranian capital with clouds of smoke. Some reports state that at least four people were martyred in these attacks, who were tanker drivers. Although Iranian authorities say that fuel supply has not been affected, the targeting of civilian industrial installations is being described as an extraordinary development. Now a cat-and-mouse game has started as Iran has retaliated and attacked Bahrain’s oil infrastructure and water desalination plant. Further attacks on water and desalination facilities may gain momentum, depriving people in the Gulf region of their basic necessity—water. In short, clear signs indicate that a catastrophe is about to befall the people living in the war-affected areas.
The attack on oil installations appears to be a calculated conspiracy by Israel because Iran’s natural reaction would be to attack the remaining oil facilities in the Gulf, which could trigger turmoil in the global oil market and cause a wave of inflation across all sectors of life.
For countries like Pakistan, which spend most of their foreign exchange on energy, people taking to the streets due to inflation appears to be a natural outcome. In such a situation, it will become impossible for governments in Pakistan and other countries to stop this public reaction, and the seats of rulers in different states may begin to shake.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has also been drawn into the flames of this war. In Beirut’s coastal district of Raouche, at least four people were killed and ten injured in an Israeli airstrike on a hotel. According to Israel, the target of the strike was commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but civilians displaced by war were also staying in the building, which spread fear and panic. Earlier, Lebanon had entered the conflict when the Iran-backed group Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
An important aspect of this war is Iran’s military capability, particularly its missile and drone program. Accurate information about the number and types of missiles possessed by Iran is not available, but experts believe it has a vast stockpile of short-range, medium-range, and long-range missiles. After the twelve-day war in June last year, Iran has focused even more on strengthening its missile technology.
Reports also indicate that although Iran describes its defense system as entirely indigenous, its strategic relations with China have ensured the continued supply of certain key components and technical assistance. There is also a long-term cooperation agreement between the two countries that includes investment and intelligence sharing.
Russia and China are apparently not directly involved in this war, yet signs of their assistance on the ground are visible. According to some reports, Russia is providing Iran with intelligence about American military bases and defense systems, while Chinese satellite data is helping Iran identify targets. Because satellites provide extremely precise information, Iran’s missile strikes are being carried out with comparatively greater accuracy, and missiles are being fired precisely at their targets.
The Gulf countries appear to be the most worried by this situation. Economies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait largely depend on oil and gas exports, air travel, tourism, and the service sector. Because of the war, tourism has almost come to a halt, flights are being affected, and investors are adopting a cautious attitude due to uncertainty.
On the other hand, tensions are also rising on the global diplomatic front. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has clearly warned that attempts to change the government in Iran will not gain public support. While calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East, he said that the use of force is not the solution to any problem; rather, it gives rise to hatred and new crises.
Inside Iran as well, the political situation is rapidly changing. After the martyrdom of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian leadership has elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran. In addition to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s political leadership has also pledged support and loyalty to the new Supreme Leader.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has announced that negotiations with Iran will only be possible after unconditional surrender. He also said that the United States does not need British aircraft carriers in the war against Iran. This statement also highlights growing differences between Washington and London.
All these developments indicate that the current war is no longer limited to Iran, Israel, or the United States; rather, the entire region is being affected by its consequences. The economic vulnerability of Gulf countries, the sensitivity of global energy markets, and the diplomatic rivalry of major powers are making this crisis even more complex. If these tensions persist for a long time, their effects will not only be limited to the Middle East but will also have lasting impacts on the global economy and security system.
Pakistan has also found itself in a particular dilemma during this war because after the defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is already responsible for supporting Saudi Arabia. Although Pakistan has informed Iran about this and has also conveyed its bilateral and international obligation, there are signs that Pakistan may face not only internal instability but also the possibility of violent protests. To deal with such a situation, the government will have to maintain political harmony in the country beforehand so that the harmful effects of this conflict do not fall upon Pakistan. As the bombing and bloodshed in Iran increase further, additional consequences will begin to appear in Pakistan as well, including the arrival of Iranian refugees. The Muslim Ummah must also keep in mind during this difficult time that unity within its ranks should be maintained; if it is not preserved, there is a fear that such losses may occur in the future whose compensation will be difficult.
The situation in the region has taken a tumultuous turn, and it is not unlikely that Israel and the United States may take action with tactical nuclear weapons when they see Iran’s war dragging on and the damage increasing—particularly within Israel, where news is restricted, yet alarming reports indicate that some areas of Tel Aviv are resembling the scene in Gaza, as Iran has repeatedly attacked with Kheibar Shikan and other missiles. In such a scenario, if Israel—an undeclared nuclear power—were, God forbid, to take action, then Iran would not mind producing a nuclear weapon as they already have 60% enriched material with them. In this context, Witkoff’s February 22 statement suggests that Iran could develop nuclear weapons within a week. Such a situation would not only pose a severe threat to the entire region but would also be a moment of grave concern, as nuclear radiation could make survival impossible for the people here, with countless casualties.
