The global axes of power are rapidly changing and South Asia has become the center of this turbulence. On one hand the United States signals cooperation with Pakistan, and on the other it is establishing a new balance in the region by signing a ten-year defense agreement with India. This contradictory policy is a diplomatic and defense challenge for Pakistan.
Despite continuous failures in foreign affairs including Operation Sindoor, India remains committed to an anti-Pakistan strategy, and the Modi government has made hostility toward Pakistan a permanent political weapon to hide its domestic failures.
India’s anti-Pakistan strategy has taken the form of a systematic and long-term plan. Sometimes it uses terrorist groups via Afghanistan, and sometimes it fuels sabotage in Balochistan. These activities do not appear to be the result of a temporary reaction but rather part of a deliberate strategic design, and behind this conduct are the dwindling domestic popularity of India’s ruling party, the BJP, and the extremist organization RSS, which want to center India’s national narrative on hostility toward Pakistan. Pakistan has repeatedly presented evidence of India’s proxy war to the international community, but India is intensifying its anti-Pakistan campaign to conceal its failures.
Not only that, but the evidence Pakistan has presented globally after capturing Indian soldiers and agents is scarcely matched in history. Numerous pieces of evidence have also been provided regarding Indian aggression and terrorism in Occupied Kashmir, and some international agencies and think tanks, in addition to the Human Rights Council, have mentioned this.
According to one report, the strategic partnership between India and the United States could upset the balance of power in South Asia, and this change could also prove worrisome for Pakistan’s security. Both theories — balance of power and shift of power — ultimately reach the same conclusion: that a disturbed balance of power increases instability and the risks of war in the region, especially when two nuclear powers face each other. It is also notable that power always holds a central position in global politics and states struggle to acquire power for their survival, security, and influence. In 2006, during President George W. Bush’s administration, the United States made agreements with India in defense, nuclear cooperation, and other fields; the main reason was China’s emerging global role. The United States wants to use India as a counter balance against China. The defense agreements made during President Obama’s 2015 visit and U.S. support for India’s permanent membership in the Security Council were part of the same strategy.
From India’s point of view, defense agreements with the United States jointly provide India with significant strategic, technical, and operational benefits. Fundamentally, these agreements strengthen India’s military capabilities; for example, through GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence), sharing of sensitive intelligence and geospatial data becomes possible, which gives an edge in regional security and joint operations. Agreements like LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) enhance logistic support, secure communications, and military interoperability, giving India access to U.S. bases and advanced technology to face challenges like China in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, Memoranda of Intent and ISA (Industrial Security Agreement) help make India’s defense industry self-reliant and assist in joint production, while SoSA (Statement of Intent on the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Space Situational Awareness) — the Statement of Intent on Security of Supply Arrangements — ensures the security of the supply chain.
Overall, these agreements, in addition to defense harmonization, grant India direct access to U.S. defense technology and intelligence, which will modernize India’s military preparations and make joint exercises more effective. This will not only increase defense trade but also elevate India to the status of a major defense partner globally, enabling preferential supply and coordination in emergencies — which is worrying for the regional balance of power.
In simple terms, as a result of these agreements the United States could, using its advanced systems, obtain sensitive information about Pakistan’s war posture, aircraft direction and location, troop movements, and other data, and provide it to India when needed or through integrated systems. The same danger will be posed to China by the U.S.–India defense partnership, which could disturb the balance of the entire region. In this context, Pakistan can, alongside traditional diplomacy, expand its defense stability by increasing its military hardware and capabilities while using international pressure and public diplomacy.
The current geopolitical changes — including U.S. interest — are also creating a rare diplomatic opportunity for Pakistan, which it needs to exploit in time. Through public diplomacy Pakistan must present its narrative strongly on the global stage, and since Pakistan is currently a member of the Security Council, as an effective use of this situation it can attempt to raise the Kashmir issue under Chapter VII and seek to adopt a resolution against India. It is necessary that Pakistan proceed cautiously on military, legal, and diplomatic fronts in a balanced manner, so that regional security and Pakistan’s interests remain protected from India’s provocations.
