Pakistan is currently going through a critical phase in its history. Inflation, hunger, destitution, and economic instability have pushed the country so that every sensible person feels apprehensive about the future.
However, amidst these harsh and challenging conditions, some signs of improvement have also emerged, which make the immediate conduct of elections seem difficult to consider.
New traditions of having numerous bills passed in the Parliament are being established. The approval of 54 bills in four days has surpassed the record of 32 bills passed two years ago in 2021. Analyzing the rules and interests of bill approval, the budget serves as a better example, where the Parliamentarians are handed six to seven volumes to read and understand just one day before presenting the budget, and the government becomes entirely responsible after fulfilling its obligations.
Reading and comprehending six to seven volumes in a day is not an easy task, but if these documents are made available a week before, members can prepare somewhat.
Similarly, debates on bills are mostly nominal in the assembly, where members attend just to show their presence, and whether a bill is passed or rejected is usually decided beforehand by the party leadership and a few representatives.
We should also keep in the mind that our Parliament is seldom active enough to engage in meaningful discussions and debates on every bill. On average, only four to five members of the middle class are present in the Assembly.
Our country operates under the whim of a kitchen cabinet, consisting of a select few individuals close to the leadership. Even if a party nominates someone from the poor or middle class to represent them, it is merely symbolic.
In a country where a poor girl can be beaten to death and the wife of a judge involved in the crime can be granted bail multiple times before being arrested, there is no outcry against such incidents. At present, the situation has become so dire that people are not concerned about the government or other affairs beyond two square meals a day.
People’s hopes, expectations, and trust in democracy and democratic system operators have diminished due to hunger, poverty, inflation, and destitution caused by the PTI and PML-N governments over the past five years. In such circumstances, the decision can be made to delay elections and this appears to be possible to some extent.
The recent visit of China’s Vice Premier to Pakistan is also of great significance. In the past year, nearly one million residents left Pakistan. Hundreds of young people risk their lives on illegal routes through boats to reach Europe, hoping for a better life. However, the potential of CPEC’s second phase, mineral resources, and Special Investment Facilitation Committee (SIFC) initiatives are expected to bring improvements to Pakistan soon.
After analyzing the situation, the Constitution is clear about the timeline for elections. If the assembly completes its term, elections can be held after 60 days, and if the assembly dissolves one day earlier, elections are mandated within 90 days. However, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has proposed early elections under the new census, and the Election Commission of Pakistan will require a minimum of four months to hold elections.
Both the PTI and PML-N governments have left Pakistan’s conditions in dire straits over the last five years. In this context, there are also ample arguments in favor of the acceptance of the census.
Considering the interests involved in the Council of Common Interests (CCI), there is a significant element of alignment between different provinces. Hence, there are considerable possibilities for the approval of the census. Therefore, it would not be entirely wrong to say that the chances of holding elections in the next two years are slim.
