The China and US breakthrough meeting is being discussed since it took place in Beijing on Sunday (June 18, 2023). It is a week now that high hopes are pinned in the strategic and economic synergy of ties between the two countries. The US Department of State has termed the top US diplomat; Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting as “candid, substantive, and constructive” talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing, while the US President Joe Biden has called the meeting “a hell of a job”.
It took ice about five years to melt down to resume the journey of mutual collaboration between the world’s top two economies. After his meeting with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi as well as Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Blinken said “a real conversation and constructive talks in China”. But, Blinken’s surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for 35 minutes toward the end of his two-day visit pleasantly astounded everyone that matters. President Biden was very high too on such a breakthrough in his tenure.
In a media statement, President Xi Jinping asked the two sides “to follow through the agreed common understanding” of his meeting with President Biden in Bali. However, President Xi appreciated both sides for making progress and reaching an agreement on some of the “specific issues”. Though the ‘specific issues’ were not defined in his speech, they are well-known to everyone. President Xi’s hope to have “stable relations with the US” is not a new aspiration. He has always been a proponent of the idea that the world needs the relationship of the two economic giants to be “generally stable.”
Indeed, a good step by the arch economic rivals to resume their diplomacy though both have different approaches towards the world order. The rival superpowers are trying to lead the world towards almost opposite directions. China clearly believes in a multipolar and economically stable world while carrying all rich and under-developed countries together. A just and win-win situation for all. The US and other NATO states are hegemonically engaged in leading their unipolar neocolonialism. The case of so-called ‘Arab Spring’ based on false accusations, economic and strategic fiddling in the African and South Asian regions, and fueling the Ukraine war are very strange and offensive realities. Unfortunately, no one learnt from the four decades of Afghan war and War on Terrorism.
Despite contradicting realities, it may be very important for China and the US “to keep engaged in diplomacy and to maintain the open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation,” as the US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has said.
Now the main questions are; Will the two countries be able to stabilize their strained relations? Generally believed that China has its specific economic and strategic policies with no chance of stepping back. The US and its allies in the West want to retain their supremacy by containing China and Russia. After engaging Russia in Ukraine and spoiling 37 percent of the world’s food basket, now China’s economic growth is a challenge for them. In this scenario, will China go for this marriage of inconvenience, and what could be the ‘possible cost’ of this to China and its neighbourhood, and to its believers and allies? Will China be able to convince the US to build up a “stable, predictable, and constructive” relationship with China and other states globally especially in the region in a healthy competition? Will China be able to go ahead without compromising on the interests of the greater region that is already under the weather?
How long will China retain a distance from the resurgence of the New Cold War? The Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to flare up the economic situation as well as posing strategic threats to different parts of the map. Many countries including the European ones are already facing the brunt of the war. Historic high inflation, food and energy crises have created chaos in many of the developed countries too including the US. Even the ‘UN Ukraine Grain Deal’ 97 percent of which was shrewdly rerouted to the West could not help them with the food crisis, as the Russian president believed.
An African countries peace mission has a meeting with President Putin just a day after the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2023). The African countries grieved over the severe crisis of food in the continent because of the Ukraine war despite all assurances of Turkey-UN inspections. They also showed concerns over the absence of many ‘Russian friends’ including China and India from the SPIEF for two connective years. Their concerns seem valid as for the time being China is supporting Russia with only a limited diplomacy. Many others also shy away from open support to Russia. Will China continue with its policy of reluctant support to Russia in a bid to have good relations with the US-West? If so, it may benefit China at the moment, but may be a dent to the multipolar world.
Blinken’s statement on China’s concerns over the Taiwan issue is dubious and camouflaged. It is obvious that the US is buying time to strengthen its strategic assets in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait by engaging China in negotiations. The Chinese foreign minister has been invited to the next reciprocal meeting to Washington DC sooner this year. It would refrain China from strategic support to Russia openly for some more months in a hope of better ties. Secondly, the time gained will be an opportunity for the US-West to strengthen their position in Ukraine, and also divert the global attention to an already prolonged armed crisis of Russia-Ukraine.
Taiwan is a “most prominent risk” in Sino-US relations, and it would remain there despite all precautions and measures by China. Rather, it would raise more concerns for a multipolar world. Strangely, Choices are limited for China to go along with the US-West while the China-US ties are vital for both and for a common good for the world. China’s recent geopolitical stretch to Central Asian Republics, Iran, India and the Middle East is worrisome. Nevertheless, the future of the multipolar world depends on China’s intelligent decision-making.
