The monsoon season, which began in early June, has lashed Pakistan with heavy rains this year and rescuers have struggled to evacuate thousands of stranded people from flood-hit areas.
Rainfall nationwide is 2.87 times higher than the national 30-year average, with some provinces receiving more than five times as much rainfall as their 30-year average. Initially ignored by the government, the floods have become the third serious challenge after “the global and domestic uncertainties that are still surrounding the economic outlook”.
The humanitarian situation in Pakistan has deteriorated further over the past two weeks as heavy rains continue to cause flooding, and landslides resulting in displacement and damage across the country. Initial assessments showed that the damage was more than that caused by 2010 floods. The unusual heavy monsoon rains and devastating flash floods badly hurt agricultural activities in overall Pakistan.
Floods are not uncommon in Pakistan but the people here tell us these rains were different. These were more than anything that had ever been seen here. While it is early to assess the actual impact, Pakistan, where agriculture has a 23% share in gross domestic product, remains highly vulnerable in the aftermath of the floods.
The floods caused by the monsoon rains since mid-June has affected Baluchistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces of Pakistan.
According to the official figures (NDMA, SIT-REP No.075) the massive floods have so far claimed 1,033 lives and injured 1,527 people. The estimated number of affected people is around 30 million, and around 1 million houses are totally or partially damaged leaving behind millions in need of urgent shelter.
More than 809,000 hectares (two million acres) of cultivated crops have been wiped out, 3,451 kilometers (2,150 miles) of roads destroyed, and 149 bridges washed away. In addition, almost 800,000 livestock are lost, and thousands of kilometers of roads and bridges destroyed. The floods are causing an earthquake-like destruction.
The current rain spell and floods has impacted the already thousands of vulnerable and deprived communities, where many are yet to recover from the effects of COVID-19. They are now in an even worse situation after these floods. Compounding effects from the pandemic are making it difficult for humanitarian organizations to immediately address and respond to the needs of those affected.
Disruption in the supply of commodities due to the floods in Pakistan has increased the prices of petroleum products which has further resulted in a spike in the Sensitive Price Index to a record high at 44.58% indicating at skyrocketing inflation in the country.
The Sensitive Price Index has broken all records and it currently stands at the highest level in history. Of the total 51 essential commodities, prices of 23 increased last week, while that of only seven decreased and 21 remained unchanged. The recent floods, caused by abnormally heavy monsoon rains, have adversely affected important and minor crops, which may impact the economic outlook through agricultural performance. The floods have reduced the potential output of both main and minor Kharif crops, thereby tampering with positive outlook of the agriculture sector. The repercussions of flash floods may include higher imports, compromise on exports and rising inflation, which will undermine efforts of the government to tackle the macro headwinds.
The situation may force the government to make additional imports of cotton worth USD 2.6 billion, wheat worth USD 900 million and the country will lose textile exports of around USD 1 billion. This comes to around USD 4.5 billion (1.08% of GDP) in the current fiscal year 2022-23.
Owing to the flash floods, the consumers are expected to face supply deficit of household groceries such as onion, tomato and chili.
The worst affected crop is cotton. Farmers produced 8 million bales in the previous fiscal year, but now they will again have a poor crop, like previous years, amid heavy rainfall in Sindh. “Cotton sowing has reportedly been destroyed to a large extent (in Sindh), it said. “Assuming the country requires import of cotton to fulfill 80% of demand this year, the import bill will likely exceed USD 4.4 billion in FY23.
On the other hand, any unavailability of imported raw cotton or other unprocessed textile will negatively impact the country’s textile exports.
Rice is another crop that is expected to endure massive damage in the ongoing floods. It is among the few crops where the area under cultivation has increased significantly in the recent past. It contributes USD 2.5 billion in annual exports.
As water from the flash floods is believed to take two to three months to disappear, the aftermath is likely to result in delay in wheat and edible oil seed sowing. Delay in wheat plantation will be a double blow as many farmers have already switched from wheat to edible oil seed cultivation. Moreover, the post-flood situation is also expected to negatively impact the yield of upcoming wheat crops. With the delay in sowing and higher wheat import prices, the import of 15% of wheat demand of 30 million tons may take its import bill to USD 1.7 billion in FY2023.
The World Bank may repurpose its existing $370 million for the flood-related activities and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is expected to reprioritize its $25 million funds, including an $8 million grant, earlier committed for Covid-19 purposes. However, the bilateral donors indicated the provision of small grants, which might not be sufficient.
On the appeal of PM Shahbaz, the international organizations and financial institutions announced an immediate aid of more than $500 million for the flood victims. Pakistan is grappling with a worse economic crisis and the deepening political turmoil is spawning doubts about the government’s ability to make tough decisions going forward and tackle the longstanding structural issues of the economy responsible for the recurring balance-of-payments crisis.
Protecting forests and natural resources can significantly reduce flood risks. Plantation is actually man made forest; some trees like Eucalyptus and Mangroves are very helpful, they naturally protect us from such floods, tidal waves and Tsunamis. We can plant them near rivers, canals and dams. Actually Eucalyptus has a lot of properties; it is a fast growing tree and a kind of natural insecticide. It is also called a thirsty tree, its roots spread deep underground and dry up all the water so it is also used to drain swamps and marshes; and the mangroves forest also does the same. By planting such trees we can get some control over floods.
Dams are also helpful, we can store excessive water in them so we need to build more dams. There are many ways to resolve this issue. This means developing new laws and implementing existing ones to protect the environment, along with strengthening flood early warning system and restricting development in floodplain zones. The government must build dikes to protect agricultural land.
