The Afghan government has had its most difficult week fighting the Taliban since the insurgency began. Almost 19 provincial capitals have fallen since last Friday, marking the first time the Taliban have controlled a city since they were ousted in 2001. Some analysts claimed that the insurgents have controlled two-thirds of the country.
A Taliban takeover of Kabul — once thought to be years away if at all — is now conceivable within months, or even a matter of weeks. As the Taliban juggernaut has accelerated its advance and vowed to re-establish a strict Islamic Emirate, signs of concern are emerging in Pakistan.
A larger concern for Islamabad is the energizing impact the Taliban’s ascendance is having on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has close ties to the Afghan Taliban and has recently regenerated terror activities in Pakistan. The TTP has really stepped up its violence against Pakistan. They have been hitting various military targets for the last 6 to 12 months.
In its latest report, the UNSC’s Sanctions and Monitoring Committee warned that a significant part of the Al Qaeda leadership resides in the regions along the border with Pakistan. The growing instability seems to have allowed various transnational militant groups greater space to operate in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has long been a haven for the Afghan Taliban fighting the occupation forces that had given Islamabad some leverage to bring the insurgent group to sit across the negotiating table with American officials. However, that power seems to have diminished with the exit of the American forces.
Despite the apparent tightrope walking it will be hard for Islamabad to escape the fallout. One is, however, not sure whether our policymakers have a clear grasp of the seriousness of the situation and a clear strategy to deal with these challenges.
Meanwhile, the government in Afghanistan has squarely put the blame on Pakistan for the mayhem in the country. This is because the Afghan officials believe that without help from Pakistan, the Taliban could not possibly takeover Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Doha peace talks are not proceeding even at a proverbial snail’s pace.
The chasm of distrust between the Ghani government and the Taliban has only been widening. The Ghani administration has either acted like an ostrich unable to see the writing on the wall or found it convenient to scapegoat Pakistan for their collective failures. Washington has also been pressing Islamabad to use its influence over the Taliban to broker an elusive peace deal.
It is apparent that the American exit plan has been as chaotic as its invasion of Afghanistan. There was no clear objective when the world’s most powerful superpower went to war and 20 years later it’s leaving Afghanistan in a greater mess with warring Afghan groups fighting for domination.
Pakistan needs to tread a very cautious path with the threat of Afghan civil war extended to its own territory. It could have more serious repercussions for our national security than in the past.
