The rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan indicates that there will be more complications in the coming days, while its aftermath on Pakistan is a natural process of regional and international politics. The recent meetings of the Afghan Taliban with several countries in the region show that the situation in Afghanistan will deteriorate, while the fears of a civil war in Afghanistan seem to be coming true.
Chinese Foreign Minister had met Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani counterpart in separate meetings. The joint statement issued by Pakistan and China reiterated that both countries will conduct joint operations in Afghanistan to save the Afghan territory from a full-fledged civil war and ensure that the country’s land cannot be used for any terrorist activity. And in a meeting with the Taliban, China has demanded that the East Turkmenistan Movement be stopped from flourishing in Afghanistan and that elements belonging to that movement be eliminated.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was also busy in meetings with India these days, and these meetings have shown that India’s role in stabilizing Afghanistan should be further highlighted and India should be given a more active role.
Meanwhile, the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Pakistan was also very important in view of the current situation and it is clear that Saudi Arabia will lean towards the United States. Saudi Arabia will also push for the Afghan Taliban to agree to a joint government with Ashraf Ghani’s party.
The Taliban, despite US drone strikes (contrary to the spirit of the Doha Accords), have now taken over most of Afghanistan, and the insurgent group is well aware of its power, and given the circumstances, it does not seem easy for the Taliban to form a coalition government.
The Taliban can move towards the central and provincial capitals whenever they want, so far it is part of the Taliban’s strategy not to do so in order to gain international recognition. Delayed occupation of capitals could help the US and India strengthen anti-Taliban forces and accelerate civil war.
Obviously, in such a case, Pakistan’s problems are likely to increase manifold. Many analysts also speculate that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is tantamount to kill two birds with one stone.
The first goal was to convince their nationals that they have achieved the goals in Afghanistan, such as eliminating al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Second and the important goal was to harm the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CEPC) by creating chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In the coming days, it is not far-fetched that the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban will become more stable, while TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud has made it clear in an interview to US media that he wants Shari’a system in Pakistan and the war with Pakistan’s security forces will continue.
Most Pakistani militants also believe that just as the Afghan Taliban are pushing for the implementation of Shari’a law in Afghanistan, so too can things be improved in Pakistan through that system. In this regard, the complications in Pakistan seem to be increasing and in the days to come. Pakistan, with its diplomatic and other means, must be fully prepared for future challenges.
TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud has openly stated that the struggle for independence of FATA areas will continue. In this regard, Islamabad should convince the United Nations through diplomatic and political means that the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has the help of RAW and other external forces to destabilize Pakistan.
The involvement of India and other external powers is clear after the Dasu incident because targeting Chinese experts engaged in ongoing projects in Pakistan could lead to China taking its own steps, which Islamabad cannot afford.
In the days to come, we need to be fully vigilant diplomatically, politically and militarily. Rather, it is a matter of circumstances to start working on the dangers by a unified strategy.
