After the brazen attacks on Saudi facilities earlier this month, there was fear that the Middle East crisis would lead to a full-grown conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both nations have a long history of bitter rivalry, but it seems that things are finally settling down and may not turn out for the worst.
Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, the de facto ruler, has warned that a confrontation with Iran would collapse world economy, and he would prefer a political and peaceful solution to the crisis instead.
There seem to more pressing economic issues burdening MBS namely oil prices reaching unimaginable high numbers in case of a military conflict. The region has important energy supplies and trade passages; the world economy would be affected if these were to stop.
Saudi Arabia has often been reluctant to fight its own wars and hires proxies. Previously Pakistan supported Saudi’s military endeavours but has now refrained from direct involvement. The Houthis recently claimed to capture thousands of troops. These are mercenaries from Sudan and other African countries well-compensated to fight and die for other’s wars.
The Saudis are also concerned that they will be the main target if a regional war did break out and their military would struggle to defend against experienced Iranian forces. The crown prince has also endorsed talks between Donald Trump and Iranian President Rouhani, but this historic meeting is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
The US rushing to blame Iran for the attack is no surprise given the tensions between Trump and Iran. Mike Pompeo called it an ‘act of war’ even before the damages were accessed and a statement was issued by the Saudis. The US hurriedly announced to send US troops as well as air and missile defence equipment.
The US needs to protect its ally but it certainly but cannot afford another war or be involved in yet another conflict. The Saudis are well equipped to hold down the fort given their recent accumulation of arms and ammunition.
Trump on his first trip to Saudi Arabia signed a staggering $800 billion worth of military deals. The country is one of the world’s largest arms importers and was responsible for 12 percent of arm sales in 2018. Then why does a country with such military might need help from other countries?
Saudis Arabia has perhaps taken more than it can juggle. A war with Iran would open a new front for Saudi Arabia already involved in a bitter conflict in Yemen. This conflict has exposed Saudi vulnerabilities and the need for constant protection from Western allies so the Saudis would continue to play on US fears from Iran.
Iran is currently facing the policy of ‘maximum pressure’ by the Trump administration. European countries also seem to be toeing the US line and have blamed Iran for the attack on Saudi oil facilities. Enmity between both nations has soared ever since and crippling sanctions have reimposed. Iran has said that it is ready for a full-fledged war. If need be, both nations must exercise caution and immense restraint to protect lives from the horrors of war.
