The new American administration of President Joe Biden has ordered a review of the peace agreement with the Afghan Taliban that his predecessor former US President Donald Trump negotiated. The US Department of Defense stated that it might not withdraw its troops from Afghanistan on May 1 as scheduled due to Afghan Taliban attacks on Afghan national security forces even though the Afghan Taliban haven’t attacked US and NATO forces since the agreement took place early last year.
Prime Minister Imran Khan, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and Pakistan military leadership have worked hard to convince the Afghan Taliban to come to the negotiating table and work out a deal with the Afghan Government and the US to bring peace and stability to not only Afghanistan but the region.
It would be heart-wrenching to see this peace deal collapse for superfluous reasons. It would also be a deep blow for Pakistan that was seeking peace in Afghanistan not just for security concerns but for economic prosperity that it can bring regarding accessing trade routes to the Central Asian Republics and Russia.
Despite what I might think of former US President Donald Trump as a person but he was correct in trying to make peace with the Afghan Taliban and withdrawing US troops to end these forever wars going on not just in Afghanistan but also in Iraq. The Afghan war is the longest conflict since the founding of the US in 1776 and so far, the US government spent almost US$2 trillion on this war over the last 20 years with relatively no result as the Afghan Taliban control around 60% of Afghan territory.
It may be premature to question American intention under President Biden and assume the worst that the US government will back out of the Afghan peace deal.
But to review it at this time raises many questions and doubts when the Biden foreign policy team had an entire year to review the peace deal when he was a Presidential candidate and raise objections during the election campaign.
In a recent op-ed in Stars and Stripes by Daniel R. DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities and a columnist at Newsweek, he explains the three policy options available to the Biden Administration regarding Afghanistan as follows: 1) maintain a U.S. counterterrorism presence for the foreseeable future, 2) enter into new negotiations with the Taliban to extend Washington’s stay and give intra-Afghan diplomacy more time, and 3) continue implementing the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement until all US troops are out of Afghanistan by May 1.
DePetris goes through the pros and cons of the first two options leading to prolonging the US presence with little to no upside and thus, concludes the third option of implementing the peace deal negotiated by the Trump administration as the best choice of action. To those who say that leaving Afghanistan behind will automatically result in the next 9/11, DePetris replies, “But given Washington’s global strike capability, a $60 billion intelligence budget and a US counterterrorism apparatus that is second-to-none, this contention should be viewed as nothing more than the last-ditch defense of a failed status quo.”
Let’s examine the motivation of the various players both Afghani and external that want the peace deal to end. The current Afghan government headed by President Ashraf Ghani would prefer the peace deal with the Afghan Taliban fail. The Afghan government knows that once US troops leave, they would have to compromise with the Afghan Taliban regarding power-sharing, and thus, it’s not in the interest of President Ghani and the Afghan government to end US occupation. As soon as US troops leave, the legitimacy and existence of the current Afghan government would be doubtful. Afghanistan relies on the international community for 75% of its public expenditures, it would be foolish for the Afghan government to behave any differently.
The US civil-military establishment doesn’t want to leave Afghanistan but rather stay and turn the country into a garrison to keep an eye on China and CPEC. There is a consensus among many of the members of Congress from both parties to keep US troops in Afghanistan for a longer period as evidenced by a recent Congress mandated report that recommends the US should push the deadline back. The study repeats the usual talking points that hawks use to justify prolonging the almost 20-year war. The neo-cons of both political parties in America are in favor of endless war, be it in Afghanistan or Iraq as this also fuels the “military-industrial” complex that the former US President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about in his farewell address in 1961.
India is another external player that would be happy to see the peace deal end up in the dustbin. India has made vast economic and security investments in Afghanistan, as India has used Afghan soil to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistan. Also, if the peace deal brings peace and stability to the region then attention would shift towards Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir, placing further pressure on India.
Israel as an indirect player that would likely desire the peace deal to fail, as it would continue to engross Pakistan in Afghanistan affairs. If Pakistan progresses economically due to regional peace then no pressure can force Pakistan to recognize Israel. These players likely are the true spoilers of the Afghan peace deal and wouldn’t be surprising that they might be staging false-flag operations within Afghanistan to blame the Afghan Taliban to justify the non-withdrawal of US troops.
A recently released report by the UN Analytical and Monitoring Teamvindicated Pakistan’s longstanding position on threats posed to it and the region by groups like Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Hizb-ul-Ahrar and their affiliates, based in Afghanistan. The report stated that TTP was responsible for over 100 ‘cross-border’ attacks within three months last year. What has the Afghan government and US forces done to stop these attacks on Pakistan? If they are not stopping these cross-border attacks, is it by design or ineptitude?
The Biden Administration has the power to end this forever war by not surrendering to the opponents of troop withdrawal who have no alternate plan. When 140,000 US and NATO troops at peak deployment couldn’t force peace in Afghanistan, will the permanent presence of 2,500 US troops accomplish this task? I hope better sense will prevail and that all parties to the agreement will not walk away from it.
The Pakistan government should continue to engage all the direct stakeholders and other regional countries like Iran, Turkey, Qatar, China, and Russia to ensure compliance and political reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban.
