ISLAMABAD: A perfect storm of dwindling Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supplies and restricted hydel generation has forced the Power Division to continue nationwide “load management,” as nearly 5,500 megawatts (MW) of production remains offline.
In a statement issued by the Power Division’s spokesperson late last night, the government admitted that electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) remained compelled to conduct two to two-and-a-half hours of load shedding during peak hours to maintain grid stability.
https://archive.mmnews.tv/pakistan-braces-for-summer-load-shedding-as-lng-shipments-blocked-at-hormuz/
The core of the current crisis lies in the country’s inability to fuel its most efficient thermal plants. According to the spokesperson, 5,500 MW of power generation capacity is currently non-functional due to the “unavailability of LNG.”
While the official statement expressed optimism that peak-time load management would conclude once LNG shipments are secured, it offered no specific timeline for the arrival of these cargoes, leaving consumers to brace for continued outages as temperatures begin to climb.
Despite a total hydel capacity of 11,500 MW, the system is currently generating 6,000 MW less than its potential. The Power Division attributed this significant gap to low water discharge from dams—a result of decreased demand for irrigation from the provinces.
Last night, only 4,950 MW was generated from water discharge during peak hours. Experts note that until the “Kharif” sowing season begins and provinces demand more water for crops, this “cheap” electricity will remain locked behind the dams, further straining the more expensive thermal-heavy mix.
Economic vs. Peak Management
Clarifying the nature of the blackouts, the spokesperson made a distinction between “economic load management” and “peak-time management.”
– Economic Management: Will continue on high-loss feeders as a matter of policy to curb circular debt.
– Peak Management: Triggered by a systemic shortfall between total demand and available supply, affecting even those consumers on high-recovery feeders.
Despite the shortfall, the spokesperson noted that the national grid remains stable, with 400 MW of “grid stability” ensuring that transmission from the south to the center of the country continues without major breakdown.
However, the Power Division issued a fresh appeal to the public to adopt electricity-saving measures during night hours. “Due to global conditions and low water demand, there is a shortfall during night hours that must be managed more effectively through conservation,” the statement read.
It is pertinent to mention here that as the country moves toward the peak summer months, the reliance on imported fuel and the shifting demands of provincial irrigation remain the two biggest variables that will determine whether Pakistan faces a season of manageable “management” or a full-blown energy emergency.
