One year on, Pakistan and Russia are struggling for a robust bilateral diplomacy. It is what we never thought of after the Bhutto regime – a golden period of cooperation for both countries. Many best things happened before Pakistan bowed down to the US intervention in Afghanistan. Russia was destined to disintegrate while heading towards warm-waters for trade. Pakistan had a vicious role in it. Even Pakistan played well for engaging the Afghan Taliban in negotiations with the US on their withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was abrupt with all the consequences back in Afghanistan and in the region too. No dividends to Pakistan despite huge sacrifices over four decades.
Not only Afghan Taliban, even the Biden administration has been unexpected to Pakistan post-withdrawal of the US-NATO troops from Afghanistan. Both held Pakistan responsible for every wrong in Afghanistan for one reason or the other. Bitter end of a toxic romance. The IMF too worsened the situation for Pakistan in the last couple of years. And, still pushing the country towards a default. Pakistan has to face historic disgust only for one billion dollars from the IMF, and still licking its wounds. Meanwhile, several rounds of negotiations could not build the Afghan government’s confidence in Pakistan. Yet, the parties have to go miles to normalize their bilateral relationship.
China’s untattered and consistent belief on Pakistan, especially in the last one decade, has been quite helpful and hopeful. China undoubtedly played a central role in narrowing the distance between Russia and Pakistan at a time when IMF, Washington and the NATO friends were manhandling Pakistan. Blessing in disguise, I believe. Despite all odds, the first Russian oil cargo is here to certainly open up new vistas for future cooperation. Russia-Pakistan energy corridor is expected to enhance its mandate to a larger bilateral cooperation. Perhaps, this is the best time to revive the glorious past of economic cooperation and infrastructure development. Seventy-five years are too long to behave sufficiently mature in carving out the win-win conditions.
Pakistan is starved for money, energy and trade in the era of historic unstable political environment that has caused immense dent to its economy, stock exchange and experts. On its knees to “friends” and IMF, yet begging. Meanwhile, Russia is facing another big blow of conflict with Ukraine where the latter one is being supported by the US-NATO. Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has cost them a huge chunk of funds and human resources. But still on its toes while Ukraine has gone bankrupt. Strategically and economically enslaved Ukraine has to become a big threat for the greater Asia region, having the US-NAT’s presence there. It would certainly be increasing risks for the Chinese investments on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and CPEC too besides the Russia-China geopolitical and economic interests. So, Pakistan has to be very careful in the coming days in balancing its ties with the West and with the neighbourhood.
Having hosted large meetings on diverse subjects, Pakistan needs to have a comprehensive and long-term plan for Russian cooperation. Central Asian Republics, the former states of the USSR, and today’s Russian Federation can play a very significant role in strengthening Pakistan’s security, economy and energy challenge. The bilateral ties shall go beyond the rhetoric and statements. Both countries need some bold steps to improve strategic ties as well against the new cold war strategies and NATO’s expansion plans. Is there any harm to Pakistan in extending military support to Russia? Maybe through China or any friendly country. However, Pakistan shall be willing to join any arrangement which strengthens regional connectivity, peace and cooperation. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia) can play a central role in harnessing Pakistan’s potential in the region.
Afghanistan and Taliban could be a challenge for regional cooperation, especially Pakistan’s cooperation with Russia. Nevertheless, Pakistan shall continue with the confidence building measures to engage Taliban’s government in Afghanistan, and to mitigate the TTP threats in Pakistan. In the merging scenarios, there are possibilities of the US returning to Afghanistan after Ukraine has miserably failed to check Russia and curtail its reach out to the Black Sea. Around US$ 100 billion military aid to Ukraine seems to have gone ineffective while it is strategically important for the US to check both Russia and China. India too has been ineffective in expediting the cold war in the region, certainly for its economic interests with China and its ever-increasing lobby of friends.
Pakistan has to act more wisely in the emerging situation though traditionally it has been very close to the US-NATO bloc. Now, the vacuum the US has created could become an opportunity for Pakistan to have better ties in a combo of Russia-China. Both have played for Pakistan quite well in the absence of the US support. Best time to claim impartiality and balance of bilateral ties while efficiently watching its economic interests and cooperation. Today’s economic convergences might help unite the Eurasian supercontinent for the benefit of all regional countries. The new Great Game shall not hamper the region again.
