Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf has achieved a monumental victory in the Punjab by-polls. This phenomenal success has left his opponents as well as his supporters in awe. Even this morning, if any neutral political activist or journalist had said PTI would win seventeen out of twenty seats by nightfall, and would also prevail in constituencies such as Bhakkar, DG Khan, Pindi, Khushab and Sahiwal, they would probably told the person to go see a shrink. But this is a reality now.
Numerous reasons can explain the success of PTI. While a detailed analysis will reveal many PTI’s successes and PLMN’s failures, but I see only three reasons that helped PTI achieve this great feat; Imran Khan, Imran Khan, Imran Khan.
In reality, this election was Imran Khan vs All. All the political forces of Punjab and the whole country were against Imran Khan. The votes of PPP, PML-N, JUI and all other small factions polled against PTI. In some areas due to grouping, PPP also opposed PML-N at the local level, but in most places they were against Imran Khan.
The administration completely opposed the PTI and PML-N candidates were provided with all possible help. Development work continued till the end, even though it should have been stopped as per the election laws. ECP willfully ignored many things regarding PLM-N. Hundreds of votes from several middle class societies in Lahore were transferred to polling stations miles away. Perhaps they thought these were literate areas, and would vote for PTI.
But in the final analysis, all these tricks failed miserably.
The Imran Khan factor has won
This is only Imran Khan’s victory. The candidates must have worked hard, but because of Imran Khan, they suddenly received a much bigger vote bank, or else, it wouldn’t have been possible on many seats.
Imran Khan’s aggressive and vigorous election campaign and his narrative have succeeded. When Imran Khan held an extraordinary meeting in Alipur, Jatoi, we were all surprised. Then it was estimated that Imran Khan could win both Muzaffargarh seats. Same happened in Multan and Lahore. Although one was expecting a close contest due to grouping at the local communities level. But in the end, Imran Khan’s factor proved to be decisive.
Defeat of an electable like Saeed Nawani in Bhakar is the beginning of real change. He had won here seven times in a row.
Similarly, the defeat of Noman Langriyal in Sahiwal was also unexpected, even though the PTI candidate was a humble, elderly man. They quip if he had been in the race all alone, he still would have finished last. Even him won the election.
PTI’s magic worked in Layyah aslo. Although there the PML-N candidate had the support of the settlers. In Jhang, the PML-N created the impression through groupings that they would win both of the seats, the result was reversed.
DG Khan could not have guessed that Saif Khosa would poll twice as many votes as PML-N candidate Abdul Qadir Khosa. But it has happened; Saifuddin Khosa got a surprising victory. Locals believe that the only reason for this is Imran Khan’s rally in DG Khan that changed the whole landscape. Even in this purely tribal area, the youth went out in frenzy in the name of Imran and inflicted a crushing defeat on Abdul Qadir Khosa, supported by Leghari, Khosa and other chiefs.
Shah Mehmood Qureshi also worked very hard in Multan, but the local journalists are calling this victory also the result of Imran factor. There, PPP and especially Yusuf Razagilani worked day and night to defeat Zain Qureshi, but the Imran Khan factor swept everyone away.
PTI won three seats in Lahore. One seat was vacated by Aleem Khan, winning this is a big achievement. PML-N made its two minsters Ayaz Sadiq and provincial minister Salman Rafique resign for these seats; all for nothing.
Imran Khan’s vote bank has increased exponentially across Punjab including Lahore. I believe the fourth seat of Lahore could have been won if PTI had fielded a stronger candidate there. Likewise, if Imran Khan had held a rally in Bahawalnagar, the seat might have been won there. This is the only constituency where Imran Khan did not address a rally.
In this election, candidates and ground realities became largely irrelevant; the Imran Khan factor remained supreme.
Imran Khan’s narrative won while seventeen turncoats faced humiliation. PML-N, Shehbaz Sharif, Hamza Sharif were also defeated.
Above all, Maryam Nawaz Sharif and her narrative bit the dust. The results showed that it is not enough for Maryam Nawaz Sharif to compete with Imran Khan. PML-N has to think something else for the general elections.
After this victory, PTI will definitely get the Punjab government, but since the general elections are not far away, there really is no justification for PLM-N to remain in the federal government. The caretaker government should be formed in the next three to four months. The people and the country need a fresh mandate without any intervention and engineering. Whoever being selected by the masses, should get the government, not just the government, but an empowered one.
